Severe Weather Forecast Discussion
Thursday April 21, 2005 - Prepared by Andrew Revering
 
This discussion is NOT intended for navigational purpose, but rather to help spotters better prepare for a potential severe weather event.
Summary
  • Moderate risk for severe storms in North-Central and Eastern Kansas.
  • Slight Risk for severe storms in Eastern Oklahoma and all of Missouri.
  • Isolated severe storms in parts of Texas, Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina and Western Virginia.
  • Severe Weather Primary Target: Minneapolis, KS; Salina, KS; Topeka, KS; Lawrence, KS; Oskaloosa, KS.
    • Targets are intended to advise spotters of highest probability of severe weather (in my opinion).
Forecasts are done using model guidance in the form of maps and forecast soundings available at http://www.f5data.com/.
You can also join the F5Data email discussion group at http://www.yahoogroups.com/group/f5data/
Discussion
 
Severe storms in Tornado Alley today. Initial development looks likely in two spots. One in North-Central Kansas and another in East-Central Oklahoma. Both should fire roughly around the same time... I'm guessing about 2 p.m. The two cities closest to initiation that come to mind are Minneapolis, KS and Muskogee, OK.
 
The storms in Kansas will move ENE at 20-25 and perhaps be rooted in the warm front. This will help to perpetuate the storm situation in this region. The storms should travel to Northeast Kansas from Minneapolis, KS and remain severe along the I-70 corridor, or just north of there, through Saint Mary's, KS by 4 p.m.
 
By this time scattered severe storms may develop from Northwest Missouri into Eastern Kansas, Central and Eastern Oklahoma and into North-Central Texas.
 
Isolated severe storms may also pop up in the Smokey Mountains of Tennessee, Kentucky and Virginia.
 
By late afternoon and early evening, severe storms should be well underway in Kansas. A very intense line of severe storms of possibly supercellular nature should be firing along the dryline along the length of Eastern Kansas, and perhaps into North-Central or Northeast Oklahoma. Isolated severe cells may fire along that line down as far as Northern Texas, however that is more unlikely.
 
More severe storms may fire along the warm front from Northwest Missouri to Southeast Missouri. Isolated severe storms will also still be possible in the Mountains of Tennessee and North Carolina, with more isolated severe storms possible throughout the rest of North Carolina.
 
The greatest risk for severe storms across the U.S. on Wednesday should be from about 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. along the I-70 corridor from North-Central Kansas to Northeast Kansas. Specifically from say Salina and Minneapolis, KS eastward to Topeka, Lawrence, and Oskaloosa, KS.
 
Tornadoes certainly can be expected with these storms as deep layer shear, low level shear, instability, etc. will be great. The greatest threat for tornadoes is going to be throughout all of Eastern Kansas into far Northeast Oklahoma.
 
Live, operational computer model graphics, forecast soundings and more [F5Data] are available at: http://www.f5data.com/
 
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